Cathy Carter

Professional REALTOR
ABR, CRS, CDPE
Re/Max Alliance Group 
725 W. Elliot Rd., Suite 111 
Gilbert, AZ.  85233

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Call: 480-459-8488
Toll-Free: 800-519-5578


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How's The Market?

Are you trying to understand how the real estate market is doing in your area but don’t know where to begin?

If you are like most people then you are probably hearing mixed information reported from a variety of media outlets, real estate institutions and companies, and various other economic think tanks. This unfortunately creates confusion and causes most people interested in real estate (as a buyer, seller, or investor) to make inaccurate judgments and conclusions about the market.

Think about it, with all this mixed information on whether we are in a good, bad, or flat market, who’s information is the “correct” answer? Also, who is the information you are reading in reference to? A great market for a buyer may be a bad one for a seller while a bad market for a seller may be a great one for a investor/buyer.

The point is, depending on what kind of real estate consumer you are (buyer, seller, investor) then the information you take in needs to be interpreted in light of your objectives. At any given time the market is always “Good”, “Bad”, “Flat”, or “Great”…but that depends on what you are looking to specifically do with real estate.

We can provide you with the proper information to accurately answer “How’s the market?” for you, based entirely on what you are looking to do with real estate.

Latest market stats for Chandler.

 

Phoenix Real Estate Market Report

 

July 11 - The Cromford® Market Index table below covers the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities.

We now have 2 cities showing a move in favor of buyers over the last month and 15 moving in favor of sellers. You might be forgiven for thinking that this makes the table less favorable for sellers than last week. You would be wrong however, as the average change in CMI is 9.4%, up from 9.0% last week.

We have a large number of cities moving a great deal in favor of sellers - Queen Creek, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Goodyear, Avondale, Chandler, Surprise and Peoria are all in double figures. We have 5 cities over 200 and no cities under 130.

This is now an exceptionally strong market with no sign at all of the weakness we were seeing between September and February.

July 10 - Based on affidavits of value filed during June we have collected the following counts of iBuyer activity:

  Opendoor OfferPad Zillow All iBuyers Combined
Homes Purchased in June 2019 309 84 112 505
Homes Purchased in June 2018 297 115 16 411
Annual Change in purchases +4% -27% +600% +18%
Homes Sold in June 2019 280 96 111 487
Homes Sold in June 2018 256 106 0 362
Annual Change in Sales +9% -9% N/A +35%
Median Purchase Price in June 2019 $244,800 $219,174 $305,000 $248,000
Median Purchase Price in June 2018 $240,300 $223,000 $335,000 $235,000
Median Sale Price in June 2019 $250,000 $241,500 $309,900 $259,000
Median Sale Price in June 2018 $245,250 $231,000 N/A $242,000
Homes in Inventory at the End of June 990 420 387 1,797

iBuyers purchased slightly more homes than they sold in May.

We can still see significant growth in iBuyer activity compared to this time last year. However growth since the beginning of 2019 has been very limited. Given that the re-sale market has been very strong in May and June, the iBuyers have lost some market share over the last 2 months. They represented 4.8% of May purchases, lower than the 4.9% they achieved in August 2018 and a lot lower than the peak of 6.9% that they achieved in December 2019. They achieved a 4.9% share of sales in May, equal to their September 2018 share and down from the peak of 6.3% which was hit in March 2019. We cannot give you the percentage of June sales because we do not yet have figures for the total market sales. However we estimate 3% share for Opendoor, around 1% for Zillow and a little below 1% for OfferPad, making just below 5% in all.

Breaking consistently through the 5% market share appears to be proving a little difficult, though whether this is entirely due to the decreasing supply of homes below $300,000 or other factors we cannot say. Certainly the chosen market price range for Opendoor and OfferPad is shrinking fast. Since Zillow tends to target slightly higher price ranges that is slightly less of a constraint for them. Homes below $225,000 are becoming scarce and this scarcity is rapidly spreading up towards $300,000.

iBuyers have a larger share of inventory - 1,797 represents a very significant number, given that we only have 9369 active listings below $500,000 on ARMLS (excluding UCB and CCBS). The iBuyer inventory does include homes that are under contract but have not yet closed. So if we include the listings under contract on ARMLS below $500,000 we get a total of 19,299.

iBuyers thus appear to hold roughly 9% of inventory under $500,000 excluding new homes and the (tiny) distressed market. Their share of inventory below $300,000 is higher still.

July 8 - We saw only 1,831 new listings added during the first week of July across all areas & types. This is down 8% from last year and continues the weak supply trend that started in June. This is unusual and is causing more problems for buyers. The gap between supply and demand is getting wider.

July 6 - For the last 8 weeks, the monthly sales rate has recorded new all-time records for the time of year. The closest rivals were the years 2005 and 2011.

You can see this here:

The current situation is remarkable given that, in mid February, 2019 was running lower than 8 of the earlier years (2005, 2010-2013, 2016-2018).

July 5 - The Cromford® Market Index table below shows the state of play in the single-family markets of the 17 largest cities within Greater Phoenix:

We still have 16 out 17 cities showing conditions becoming more favorable for sellers. The lone exception is Tempe which has slipped down the table to 14th.

Quite remarkably, the average change in CMI over the past month is 9.0%, up from 8.6% last week. Many cities are well over this 9% average, including Goodyear, Fountain Hills, Queen Creek, Paradise Valley, Chandler & Avondale.

We now have 4 cities over 200 and 7 cities over 190.

This is the greatest imbalance in favor of sellers that we have seen in almost 6 years.

July 4 - Active listing counts are still plummeting and they have been low for so long that it can be difficult to place them in proper context. We thought it would be instructive to compare current levels with peak levels and long term averages.

The figures below are for active single-family detached listings excluding UCB and CCBS listings:

City Active on July 3, 2019 Peak Level Long Term Average Level % Average
Avondale 108 1,116 379 28.5%
Buckeye 372 1,279 512 72.7%
Cave Creek 197 516 273 72.2%
Chandler 455 2,481 1,049 43.4%
Fountain Hills 157 531 264 59.5%
Gilbert 538 2,766 1,192 45.1%
Glendale 439 2,567 976 45.0%
Goodyear 383 1,300 581 65.9%
Maricopa 323 1,092 445 72.6%
Mesa 699 3,657 1,699 41.1%
Paradise Valley 272 579 336 81.0%
Peoria 568 2,073 939 60.5%
Phoenix 2,462 11,416 4,765 51.7%
Queen Creek 598 2,354 1,015 58.9%
Scottsdale 1,506 4,362 2,410 62.5%
Surprise 438 2,273 966 45.3%
Tempe 171 580 311 55.0%

We can see why Avondale so frequently tops the CMI table with an extremely low supply compared with its long term average.

Mesa, Chandler, Glendale, Gilbert and Surprise are all below 50% of their long term average,

July 2 - In June, the average monthly rent per sq. ft. was $1.01 for listings closed through ARMLS. This the first time we have recorded a figure over $1.

In June 2006 the average monthly rent was only 71 cents per sq. ft., so rents have increased by 42% since then. In comparison the average purchase price per sq. ft. has moved from $188.53 to $172.02 since June 2006, a fall of 9%.

So average rent has increased 42% while purchase prices have fallen 9% since June 2006 on a cost per sq. ft. basis.

No wonder most investors are feeling pleased with themselves. Tenants are not doing so well. Buying in 2006 or 2007 was obviously a bad idea, but since 2009 purchasing a home in Greater Phoenix has generally proven to be an excellent investment compared with renting.

July 1 - The housing market in Greater Phoenix is not content with just recovering from the slight air pocket in demand that occurred in 4Q 2018 and 1Q 2019. It is now setting up to be the hottest it has been since 2005, As an example we have just 1.9 months of supply across all areas & types as of July 1, 2019. This is the lowest number at the start of any month since October 2005.

1.9 months is a very low reading (4.5 months is normal) and what makes it even more surprising is that this supply includes listings in UCB or CCBS status, since they are theoretically open to new offers. If we exclude those UCB and CCBS listings, then the months of supply number drops to 1.6.

June 30 - For an analyst, the housing market is more interesting now than it has been for at least 5 years. This is because it is doing things it does not usually do. For example, the average list price per sq. ft. for active listings usually declines quite a lot during the summer every year, staring around week 18. In 2019 the average is still increasing as late as week 26.

This is the chart that shows the effect, which is very striking:

To play with and study this chart in more depth please click here.

June 28 - This is the time of year when demand starts to fade and inventory begins to grow. However 2019 does not seem to have read the script and is playing it all wrong. Demand is staying quite high for the time being while inventory is dropping. This gives us the following table of Cromford Market Index scores for the 17 largest cities and their single-family markets:

The average change in CMI is 8.6%, similar to last week. These days the primary reason for the CMI rising is lower inventory levels. The flow of new listings has been unusually weak during June. Demand is little changed from last month but certainly stronger than last year at this time.

Only Tempe is holding out from the party with its 8% decline. Goodyear is having its best month for a very long time while Queen Creek is also accelerating. Paradise Valley, Chandler and Fountain Hills also improved much more than we would normally expect.

June 27 - Across all areas & types, closed listings on ARMLS are currently achieving 98% of final list price. This is the highest we have seen for many years and confirms the strength of sellers' negotiation powers caused by the imbalance between very low supply and stronger than normal demand.

Here are the numbers for June 27 in prior years:

  • 2001 - 97.51%
  • 2002 - 97.26%
  • 2003 - 97.59%
  • 2004 - 98.10%
  • 2005 - 99.44%
  • 2006 - 97.21%
  • 2007 - 96.13%
  • 2008 - 95.28%
  • 2009 - 96.04%
  • 2010 - 96.07%
  • 2011 - 96.06%
  • 2012 - 97.67%
  • 2013 - 97.53%
  • 2014 - 96.93%
  • 2015 - 97.22%
  • 2016 - 97.48%
  • 2017 - 97.61%
  • 2018 - 97.89%
  • 2019 - 98.00%

June 26 - Despite the Greater Phoenix housing market making new record highs for sales volume and pricing, the national media greeted the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® release for April 2019 with a surprisingly negative interpretation. I wonder how they would react if prices actually went down. Not much chance of that happening here any time soon, but here are the city rankings:

Month over month change:

  1. Boston +1.86%
  2. Detroit +1.62%
  3. San Francisco +1.59%
  4. Chicago +1.20%
  5. Portland +1.12%
  6. Seattle +1.06%
  7. Charlotte +1.01%
  8. Minneapolis +1.01%
  9. Los Angeles +0.99%
  10. Atlanta +0.98%
  11. Washington +0.90%
  12. Denver +0.80%
  13. Phoenix +0.78%
  14. Tampa +0.70%
  15. Cleveland +0.69%
  16. Dallas +0.63%
  17. Las Vegas +0.58%
  18. San Diego +0.50%
  19. Miami +0.14%
  20. New York 0.00%

These are big increases month to month and the US average was 0.93%. However the media described it as flat lining, preferring to focus on the Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted numbers (which I consider close to meaningless). The non-seasonally adjusted numbers look strong and Phoenix could only manage 13th place and slightly below the national average.

Year over year change:

  1. Las Vegas +7.1%
  2. Phoenix +6.0%
  3. Tampa +5.6%
  4. Atlanta +4.9%
  5. Charlotte +4.2%
  6. Miami +3.9%
  7. Boston +3.9%
  8. Denver +3.8%
  9. Detroit +3.5%
  10. Cleveland +3.5%
  11. Minneapolis +3.0%
  12. Dallas +2.7%
  13. Washington +2.6%
  14. Portland +2.6%
  15. New York +2.1%
  16. Chicago +1.9%
  17. San Francisco +1.8%
  18. Los Angeles +1.5%
  19. San Diego +0.8%
  20. Seattle +0.0%

Phoenix is second only to Las Vegas in the year over year table and easily beat the national average of 3.5%.

I would also point out that most buyers from China have picked up their toys and headed for home over the past 2 years. This has certainly slowed the markets in New York, Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco. It has had hardly any discernible impact on Phoenix (or Las Vegas) because we did not have many Chinese buyers in the first place.

It really is strange how the press picks up a pretty robust set of numbers and turns them into bad news. Yes they are not showing double digit appreciation, but have we not learned that double digit appreciation is unhealthy over the long term?

June 25 - The number of new listings arriving in June is low compared to last year. A 3% drop may not sound like much but it can quickly make homes relatively scare in certain areas. One area that has been affected is Mesa:

With over 1,000 listings available and not under contract in January, Mesa is now approaching the 700 mark, lower than at any point in 2018. In fact it is lower than at any time since 2013.

For a city as large as Mesa (the 36th largest city in the USA by population), 700 active listings is nowhere near sufficient to keep buyers satisfied. 1,500 would be considered a normal number and we have not seen that many since 2014.

June 21 - Not only is demand continuing to strengthen compared with seasonal norms, supply is dropping faster than usual for the time of year. We can see this well in the volatile months of supply charts. Here is an example for single family homes in the city of Phoenix:

Note how we were far higher than 2018 and 2017 in February at 4.1 months, but between March and June supply has dropped sharply and is now lower than 2 months and well below 2018 and 2017. We are at the lowest point since June 2013, but remember that the 2013 market shocked us by deteriorating rapidly in the second half reaching 4.3 months by December. Below 1.9 months in Phoenix is low enough to be considered seriously imbalanced and buyers are facing tough times unless more supply comes along quickly.

June 20 - The market continues to improve for sellers at an astonishing rate, Here is the Cromford® Market Index table for the 17 largest cities:

Now we have only 1 city - Tempe - that is not improving for sellers, and it is still firmly in a seller's market at 147.7.

Maricopa has joined the program (up 1%) and the more expensive locations like Paradise Valley (up 16%), Scottsdale (up 11%) and Fountain Hills (up 12%) are rivaling the rest of the valley for the rate of improvement. This week the stars include Goodyear (up 17%), Avondale (up another 13%) and Surprise (up 12%).

The average CMI increase was 8.5%, up marginally from last week. In normal times an improvement of 7 or 8% would be considered excellent for sellers but at the moment it only gets your city less than half way up the table.

Market sentiment has shifted in a remarkable way since the first quarter.

June 18 - In most respects the market today is stronger than it was 12 months ago. Those measurements that indicate this include:

  • The Cromford® Market Index is 161.5 - up from 160.0
  • The Contract Ratio is 77.6 - up from 71.7
  • Average sales price as a percentage of list is 98.02% - up from 97.82%
  • Active listings excluding UCB & CCBS number 16,003 - down from 16,213
  • Sales per month is 9,626 - up from 9,534
  • Days on market for active listings is 95 - down from 97
  • Market Distress Index is 1.4 - down from 2.0
  • This weeks sales as percentage of long term average is 120.8% - up from 107.3%

There are still a few indicators that have not overtaken last year, but these tend to be the long term non-volatile measurements.

  • Days Inventory 82 versus 79
  • Listing Success Rate - 83.2% versus 83.6%
  • Days on Market for Monthly Sales - 65 versus 61

Prices are higher by 5 to 7% and dollar volume is at record levels.

The recovery is complete, so where do we go from here? We shall have to watch closely to find out.

June 16 - After 2 complete weeks have elapsed we can take a fair reading of how June is doing. It is good news for sellers once again. Closed listings are very strong as can be seen here. Up from 3,540 last year to 4,019 across Greater Phoenix, which is an increase of 13.5%. This is also a long-term record high for the first 2 weeks of June in terms of both unit sales and dollar volume through ARMLS.

Additional good news for sellers appears when we examine the new listing counts here. At the time of writing, we have seen only 4,229 so far in June, down from 4,750 last year. These numbers will change over the coming days as delayed listings are activated, but the difference between June 2018 and June 2019 is substantial.

The slow arrival of new listings and large number of closings will cause the Cromford Market Index to keep climbing over the next few weeks. It is normal for the number of listings under contract to decline during June so things should be a little quieter in July and August.

June 15 - The number of active listings on the market has been falling since mid-February. It has also been falling at a much faster rate than it did in 2018. The decline is not primarily due to a shortage of new listings. As of June 11 we had seen 0.45% more new listings than at the same point last year. The primary reason is the higher rate at which they have been going under contract, with the result that fewer homes are left for other people to buy.

  • Change in active listings without a contract, Feb 16 to Jun 15, 2019 = down 19.5%
  • .Change in active listings without a contract, Feb 16 to Jun 15, 2018 = down 9.5%

This drop in available supply has combined with the increased sales rate to drive the Cromford® Market Index up from 126.1 to 159.9 between Feb 16 and Jun 15. In 2018 it moved from 158.1 to 159.8 over the same period.

We note that the CMI is now slightly higher than last year but with a much steeper trajectory.

June 13 - You start to wonder how long this can continue, but the trend in favor of sellers keeps accelerating:

The average increase in CMI over the past month is 8.3%, eclipsing the 7.4% we saw last week. Tempe and Maricopa are still not cooperating, but the other 15 cities are really going for it.

Avondale is not only top of the table but its CMI rose the most (16%) as its inventory keeps demisang.

Surprise, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Phoenix, Goodyear and Fountain Hills all rose by more than 10%. Mesa, Buckeye, Chandler and Glendale are not far behind.

Inventory is falling faster now as new listings are arriving at a slower pace. The spring selling season is lasting longer than it did last year. We usually do not see so much demand once temperatures exceed 110 degrees. It seems buyers want to grab those low interest rates while they still can, even though there is a chance they might fall further.

The market is clearly stronger now than it was at this point last year.

June 12 - Based on affidavits of value filed during May we have collected the following counts of iBuyer activity:

  Opendoor OfferPad Zillow All iBuyers Combined
Homes Purchased in May 2019 340 100 101 541
Homes Purchased in May 2018 283 125 3 411
Annual Change in purchases +20% -20% +3267% +32%
Homes Sold in May 2019 322 111 119 552
Homes Sold in May 2018 260 89 0 349
Annual Change in Sales +24% +25% N/A +58%
Median Purchase Price in May 2019 $242,650 $233,356 $290,000 $245,251
Median Purchase Price in May 2018 $212,000 $228,600 $312,000 $231,000
Median Sale Price in May 2019 $249,000 $239,900 $300,000 $255,000
Median Sale Price in May 2018 $242,500 $240,000 N/A $240,000
Homes in Inventory at the End of May 961 432 386 1,779

iBuyers sold slightly more homes than they purchased in May.

Overall growth looks strong relative to 12 months ago, but there has been little change over the past several months Zillow appears to have reached a steady level at just over 100 purchases a month. OfferPad has stayed at roughly that same level for the last 2 years. Opendoor has been at the 250-300 level for most of the last 15 months, although May's total of 340 sets a new record for them. iBuyer purchase activity has been steady over the past 3 months while overall market activity has increased.

Market share of iBuyer purchases is approximately 5% for May, having peaked at almost 7% last December. Sales activity is also around 5% having peaked at just over 6% in March.

That 5% is split 3% to Opendoor, 1% to OfferPad and 1% to Zillow at the moment.

June 8 - June has a major drawback this year for those looking to see high sales counts. It starts and ends with a weekend, when title companies do not close escrows. Despite this disadvantage, the month has got off to a flying start during the first 7 days with 1,932 closed listings on ARMLS across Greater Phoenix. The same period last year gave us only 1,732 closings. So we are up almost 12% so far. This is enough to compensate for the 10% drop in working days compared to June 2018. Will the rest of June be this strong? Watch this space.

Not only does 1,932 closings represent a very large increase from last year, it is a record number for the first week of June.

June 6 - Although June is very likely to deliver lower volume numbers than May, the balance between buyers and sellers is swinging hard in favor of sellers.

Here to illustrate that is the table showing the Cromford® Market Index numbers for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities:

15 of the 17 cities are swinging in favor of sellers and 7 of them by more than 10%. The average change is +7.4%, up from 5.9% last week.

Only 2 cities are refusing to join the party - Tempe & Maricopa. Both of them are seller's markets but they have cooled over the past month.

We note that Scottsdale and Buckeye are now improving strongly for sellers while Avondale, Mesa, Gilbert, Surprise & Phoenix are continuing the strong upward trends that have been in place for some time.

There is no little doubt that 2019 will overtake 2018 for its overall CMI rating very shortly.

June 5 - Dollar volume during May was the highest we have ever seen for ARMLS closings in a single month. The following ZIP codes saw huge increases in single-family dollar volume compared with May 2018:

  1. Glendale 85305 - up 196% ($5M)
  2. Glendale 85307 - up 182% ($5M)
  3. Goodyear 85395 - up 117% ($20M)
  4. Phoenix 85031 - up 95% ($3M)
  5. Phoenix 85019 - up 92% ($3M)
  6. Coolidge 85128 - up 88% ($2M)
  7. Scottsdale 85259 - up 87% ($29M)
  8. Phoenix 85053 - up 77% ($7M)
  9. Phoenix 85040 - up 69% ($5M)
  10. Youngtown 85363 - up 69% ($1M)
  11. Mesa 85215 - up 68% ($7M)
  12. New River 85087 - up 67% ($5M)
  13. Scottsdale 85266 - up 63% ($22M)
  14. Sun City 85351 - up 63% ($7M)
  15. Phoenix 85054 - up 61% ($2M)
  16. Mesa 85204 - up 54% ($7M)
  17. Sun City 85373 - up 56% ($5M)
  18. Mesa 85202 - up 55% ($4M)
  19. Glendale 85302 - up 55% ($5M)
  20. Apache Junction 85119 - up 49% ($3M)

June 4 - We know that the ARMLS numbers in May produced all-time record highs for monthly unit sales and dollar volume. Now let us look at the numbers from Maricopa County's recorded deeds. These include a lot of transactions that took place outside of ARMLS, such as the majority of new home closings, FSBOs and investor purchases.

For single-family homes and condos / townhouses, we saw a total of 12,041 affidavits of value. This is up 3% from May 2018 and it is the highest monthly count since June 2006. Unlike the ARMLS numbers it is not an all-time record. The bubble years of 2005 and 2006 saw a very large number of transactions conducted outside the MLS. New homes exceeded 4,000 a month several times during the bubble years, whereas in May 2019 we see less than half that number at 1,535. This is actually 1% lower than May 2018, so we can conclude re-sales are driving the recovery in demand a little harder than new homes.

The median new home sold at $364,990, which is much higher than the peak median during the bubble - $311,928. The re-sale median stands at $275,000, up less dramatically from the bubble peak of $253,418.

June 1 - The weaker demand that started in 3Q 2018 and ran through 1Q 2019 has caused a slightly slower rate of annual appreciation in recent months. However appreciation rates remain well above inflation and significantly above percentage rises in earnings. They also remain broadly similar to where they stood 12 months ago. Many locations have seen higher rates than a year ago (including Queen Creek, Buckeye, Mesa, Tempe, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Gilbert and Goodyear).

The lower interest rates we are now seeing have spurred demand that is now higher than 2018 and it is possible that we will see the appreciation trend reverse and turn higher again in the not too distant future.

Here are the appreciation rates for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities measured using the annual average sales price per sq. ft. for closed listings.

  1. Queen Creek 10.7% (8.9%)
  2. Maricopa 9.0% (9.5%)
  3. Buckeye 8.8% (8.1%)
  4. Mesa 8.2% (7.1%)
  5. Tempe 7.8% (5.8%)
  6. Avondale 7.5% (8.6%)
  7. Glendale 7.4% (7.6%)
  8. Paradise Valley 7.2% (3.6%)
  9. Phoenix 7.1% (6.8%)
  10. Gilbert 6.9% (6.7%)
  11. Goodyear 6.6% (5.4%)
  12. Chandler 6.5% (6.7%)
  13. Surprise 6.3% (8.2%)
  14. Peoria 5.7% (6.7%)
  15. Scottsdale 5.0% (6.7%)
  16. Cave Creek 4.3% (5.8%)
  17. Fountain Hills 3.3% (6.7%)

The numbers in parentheses are the appreciation rates 12 months ago. The most affordable areas are looking strong while the Northeast Valley dominates the bottom of the table.

If you would like to study this further the appropriate chart is here.

 

 
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